A frostbit fist with a smile stings twice...
Well here are again, football fans! Welcome to the Wild Card Weekend edition of Ten & Six with Mike Otto!
Not only is Mike back to break down this weekend's playoff matchups, but he brought the Vikings with him! That's right, America! The Purple in the playoffs! Only one pigskin pundit that we know of predicted a 10-6 finish for the Vikings this year and, fortunately, he's our resident football guru! Que suerte!
So, Michael, now that we've spent 17 weeks establishing the fact that you are, indeed, a great football mind, how do you think this weekend shakes out?
Well helllllo! I was right all year!
Even four weeks ago when Christian Ponder looked pathetic, the team was 6-6, and all playoff hope seemed extinguished, I still believed. I knew this team could do it, I felt it in my bones and I kept predicting wins and here we are!
It's the Wild Card round of the playoffs, the Vikings are 10-6, and
this is Ten & Six!
My picks went 11-5 last week and I'll take that as a decent end to the regular season.
(Editor's Note: Mike's final record for the regular season was 174-100-1. Pretty spiffy.)
I got the most important pick (at least to me) correct, the Vikings are
in the playoffs and earned a rematch against the Packers at Lambeau. It really doesn't get any sweeter. Even if the Vikings season comes to an end on Sunday, it's already been the most fun I've had with The Purple since '09. Good times, indeed.
Since we've entered the playoffs I'm going to re-format how I do the League Picks part of the blog by getting a little more in-depth. I will give reasons each team could win and then tell you who I think takes the game in the end.
As always, once all that garbage is out of the way I will break down the Vikings chances with the in-depth analysis and sharp wit you have all come to know & love. With that said, let's get into some game picks!
(#6) Cincinnati at (#3) Houston
Why the Bengals could win:
The Bengals Front 7 have been physically dominant all year, but have somehow found another gear the last four weeks. Couple that with the fact that Houston is slumping at the wrong time and you have the potential for an upset here.
Cincy must hit on a couple big plays to A.J. Green, make the Texans respect the deep threat (and keep a safety deep).
The Texans seem to have a little quit in them. Get a 10- or 14-point lead early and Houston might get down on themselves.
Why the Texans could win:
They're at home and they've won the last three match-ups against the Bengals.
The Texans offense and stable of weapons is much more dangerous, with more than one player who is a threat to take it the distance at any time.
The Bengals run defense is only ranked 18th overall, so Arian Foster might have a shot to break the big one. If Matt Schaub gets hot this one's over.
Who I think wins:
I see a close game going into the 4th quarter won by the Bengals after they intercept a Matt Schaub pass deep in Texans territory allowing A.J. Green to win a jump ball in the end zone. Ball game! Bengals take it.
Final Score:
Cincinnati: 24
Houston: 23
(#5) Indianapolis at (#4) Baltimore
Why the Colts could win:
It's been an inspirational year for the Colts. They rode the strength and courage Chuck Pagano showed battling cancer to a playoff berth (with a little help from rookie quarterback Andy Lucky).
Also worth noting, Luck led an NFL-best seven 4th quarter game-winning drives this year, so if it's close in the end, watch out for the rookie.
Why the Ravens could win:
The defense will have Terrell Suggs, Ray Lewis, and Ed Reed playing together for the first time since Lewis tore his triceps. Add on that Ray announced he would retire and the end of the year and you can bet the Ravens are going to be jacked up.
The Ravens are a deeper team on both offense and defense, and that could make it tough for the Colts.
Who I think wins:
I see Andrew Luck having a rough game. I think he gets hit early and often, which leads to hurried throws and interceptions later in the game.
The Colts keep it close for a half, but fade away in the 3rd & 4th quarters.
Final Score:
Baltimore: 27
Indianapolis: 17
(#5) Seattle at (#4) Washington
Why the Seahawks could win:
The Seahawks have won four straight, including three blowout victories.
Russell Wilson has defied logic in his successful rookie season, handling big moments with poise.
Pete Carroll may be a pain in my ass, but he knows how to get the most out of his players.
Why the Redskins could win:
The Seahawks have been below average on the road this year, notching a 3-5 record.
The Redskins have my Rookie Of The Year pick in Bob III, who is a threat to score a touchdown on every play. Bob's been in the national spotlight all year already, it's unlikely he'll be fazed by playoff implications.
Pierre Garcon has been a monster since his return from injury and I'm seeing a big game for him.
Who I think wins:
These two teams are very evenly matched. Both have solid running games and have shown the ability to convert key downs with the pass when necessary.
I would say the Skins are a better offensive team only because Bob III is a true "dual-threat" quarterback. The Seahawks, however, have a superior defense.
I see this being a great back-and-forth battle won on a last second field goal by the Redskins.
Final Score:
Washington: 27
Seattle: 24
And now, without further ado...
(#6) MINNESOTA VIKINGS at (#3) GREEN BAY PACKERS
It's the rubber match! The Vikings lost at Lambeau but won last week at The Dome, sweet, Dome.
Christian Ponder played his best game since the victory over the 49ers earlier in the season and Adrian Peterson capped off the best season by a running back since 1984 with 199 yards on the ground.
Anyone who thinks the Vikings can't win this game is delusional.
I love it! Packers fans were dismissive of our squad last week and they're doing more of the same this week. Let's hope Packers players are just as stupid as their fan base. There would be nothing better than seeing a bunch of mopey, drunk, fat Packers fans come 10:30 Saturday night. I'd be sleeping like a baby that night!
So go ahead! Doubt us! We beat you to get to this point you filthy animals and, after Saturday, all you idiot Packers fans are going to have to go back to your other two pastimes: day drinking and touching your cousins inappropriately.
Let's look at some positives and negatives from last week. As always, we'll start with the positives:
-Adrian Peterson It's been him all year and last week was no different. The man was possessed last week! It could have been the 2001 Ravens defense opposite Peterson last week and he still would have torn them apart. The Packers keyed on him all week in preparation, but it didn't matter, he torched them anyway.
Clay Matthews promised AP, "won't get 200 yards this week at Lambeau." That's like saying, "Albert Pujols won't hit two grand slams against us." Starting to think Packers players are just as dumb as their fans. Way to shoot for the stars, Claymaker!
-Christian Ponder Was that Christian Ponder connecting on a perfectly thrown deep ball! Oh my god! It only took until Week 17!
In all honesty, the kid played a great game. He was poised, took care of the ball, and made big completions when he needed them. If Ponder had played 16 games like that the Viking would have a playoff bye and home-field advantage throughout.
Oh well, he's peaking at the right time! The right elbow issue that has limited him in practice is slightly concerning, but I have no doubt he'll play. Shoot him up with cortisone and get him out there!
-Everson Griffen Three sacks last week and looked unblockable at times. This guy may be a late bloomer, but I could care less as long as he keeps blooming this week! On a down day overall for the defense he was a force for 4 quarters.
-Brian Robison He was playing with a badly sprained shoulder, but it didn't matter! His strip-sack of Aaron Rodgers was, in my opinion, the play of the game. Packers were driving to take the lead, had all the momentum, and the BOOM! Little Aaron Rodgers held the ball too long and the rest is history.
And, sadly, the negatives.
-Tackling & Angles I think the defense was a little too excited in this game. They were taking bad angles, missing tackles, and it hurt us badly.
In the Texans game there always seemed to be a meeting at the football by the defense. Lots of gang-tackling and they kept the Texans out of the end zone with that formula. Against the Packers there was no gang-tackling and everything seemed more difficult for our boys in Purple.
It wasn't only the defense. Special teams had some tackling issues we hadn't seen all season. This needs to improve if the Vikings are to win at Lambeau.
Three Keys To A Vikings Victory
Key #1: D-Line, get your hands up!
Kevin Williams has a pass deflection in each of the last 4 games and Brian Robison has 8 on the year. At the very least, a pass deflection at the line wastes a down for the Packers. At most, it turns into a tip drill interception for someone on the back end. Last time I checked, in football, interceptions are good!
Key #2: Go after Sam Shields
He got burned by Jarius Wright for that 65 yard completion when he totally bit on a dagger route (that wasn't even crisply run). Not only was he torched on that deep ball, but looking back at the game I noticed he left his man open several other times that Ponder didn't recognize.
If I can see that I know Bill Musgrave can too. So let's go after that fucking dolt and see if he's worth his paychecks.
Key #3: Run right at Clay Matthews
As threatening a pass rusher as Clay Matthews is, he's equally unspectacular at getting off his block and making a tackle. Adrian Peterson has destroyed the Packers in two games this year with 409 yards and 3 TD's. I haven't seen any Packers defenders truly commit to tackling AP. It's been all arm tackles, hoping to hold him up long enough for help to arrive. This includes Clay Matthews.
It'll be interesting to see if any Packers defenders have developed the courage to attempt to tackle AP like a man.
Two Matchups To Watch
Matchup #1: Mike McCarthy vs. The Tiny Dinosaur Brain He Was Born With
Stupid challenges! Wasted timeouts! That fucking lazy eye of his! Freaking Jordy Nelson had to hide the challenge flag that McCarthy illegally threw and the refs bailed him out. Seriously though, how embarrassing is it when Jordy Nelson is more aware of the current situation than your head coach?
Mike McCarthy is the perfect fat, dopey embodiment of the Packer faithful. No wonder you all stand staunchly behind him, defending his intelligence after every bird-brained mistake. You are him. He is you. You're all fucked.
Matchup #2: Any Mouthy Packers Fans vs. Me
I actually get to watch this game! Got the day off from work and I'm pumped for this shit!
Now, I'm going to be watching the game at a fine local establishment (Rudolphs BBQ) and even though that bar bleeds purple, there are bound to be a few loud-mouth Packers fans (there always is).
I rarely get into physical altercations, but when I do, it's usually football related. Much like my favorite team, I often lose my fights, but don't forget, even a blind squirrel finds a nut every once in a while, and sometimes he knees a Packer fan in the head.
Mike's All-Purpose Flour Lock Of The Week
Harrison Smith, Kevin Williams, Antoine Winfield, Chris Cook, Jared Allen, Chad Greenway, the ENTIRE Vikings defense!
I'm seeing a big day from this unit and a much improved performance from last week. 4 sacks, 12 hits on the QB, 3 pass deflections, and pick and a forced fumble! You guys got this!
Final Takes
Don't get me wrong, this is going to be a difficult game to win. Jennings, Nelson, Jones, and Cobb are all slated to play. Add in (Jer)Michael Finley and that's a lot to keep track of.
Good punts and punt coverage will be important. The Vikings can't afford to let Cobb get loose for an easy return. Hopefully The Purple aren't punting much anyway.
Against the Texans and Packers Christian Ponder is 16-23 on 3rd down conversions. That's damn efficient! That's professional quarterback football! That's the guy the Vikings are going to need on Saturday.
The Packers simply cannot stop Adrian Peterson. If he has another big day the Vikings are in this game until the very end. The Packers are 2-4 in their last 6 HOME playoff games (Rodgers is 0-1 as a starter). The Pack lost their first home playoff game last year to the eventual Super Bowl Champion New York Giants. Perhaps history will repeat itself this year!
Don't be surprised if you see the Vikings try a trick play at some point in this game. Maybe a flea-flicker that every Packer defender bites on as soon as AP touches the ball. Next thing they know Jarius Wright is dancing in the end zone.
Everyone doubts the Vikings. Everyone always has. They have the right to. Not me, though. Maybe I'm crazy, maybe I've had too much Purple Kool-Ade in my days, I really don't care. This is going to be a close game in the 4th with the Vikings nursing a "surprising" lead. I see the potential game tying/winning drive by the Packers snuffed out by our defense right around midfield because, I mean, it couldn't be a stress-free victory, right?
Final Score:
Minnesota: 27
Green Bay: 24
WOOOOOO!!! Atlanta here we come!!
Boy, oh boy! This is gonna be great!
For more of the purple drink drankin' Mike be sure to give him a follow on Twitter (@SwervinTaters). As mentioned, Mike will be able to watch the game wire-to-wire this week, so give him a follow and ride the emotional wave that will be his Twitter feed.
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