Well hello again, football fans! Welcome back to Ten & Six With Mike Otto!
Week 3 is upon us and hopefully the tide is turning for The Purple. After losing in Detroit in Week 1 the Vikings hung tough and got a couple of breaks in Chicago in Week 2. Alas, it was not to be as the Bears won the game on a last second touchdown because of course they did. Go fuck yourself, Chicago.
So, this week presents yet another matchup between the Vikings and a team representing a Midwestern town that can't hold a candle to Minneapolis: The Cleveland Browns.
As we do every Saturday, our very own great football mind Mike Otto is here to break down last week's game, give us some keys to this week's game, some matchups to watch, and make his prediction. But first, league picks!
Mikey, take it away!
"Fuck."
"And of course."
Those were the two partial sentences that left my mouth around 3:30 PM Central time last Sunday. At 3:15, when the Vikings settled for a field goal while leaving 3 minutes on the clock and a timeout in Jay Cutler's pocket, I said to myself, "they are GOING TO lose this game". I was 60-70 percent sure of it at that point.
When Blair Walsh hits a chip shot on the ensuing kick off, just GIVING Cutler the ball at the 35, that percentage went up to a solid 75.
When I realized Cutler had led two 80 yard 4th quarter drives a week earlier on the same field, it was a solid 80.
When I saw the Vikings defense was playing some bastardized form of prevent, I was 90 percent sure the team was going down.
Finally, with 16 seconds left from the 16, when Martellus Bennett slid out of the backfield, lined up slot left and I saw Chris Cook raise his hand and ask for safety help, I was 100 percent certain the Vikings were about to lose that game. Chris Cook followed Earl Bennett on his skinny post route just a bit too long, allowing Martellus to run a route right to the pylon, essentially uncovered. Chris Cook made a mistake, no doubt, (on this particular play, Earl Bennett becomes Harrison Smiths responsibility when he runs that post route) but I don't think he was really put in a position to succeed. Ball game.
Back to the debacle that was the Vikings last trip to the red zone. It was pathetic. It was illogical in more ways than one. The decisions made by the coaching staff lacked conviction, and reeked of indecision. In my opinion, in that situation, 1st and goal from the 6, 4 minutes to go in the game, up by 3, you have 2 options: either go run, run, run, make the Bears use all their time-outs, then make your decision whether to go for it on 4th down or kick the field goal. Personally, I go for it and take a shot at the end zone, I spread out the Bears defense and see what you get. (I also have your best athlete at the WR position in the game for more than 6 freaking plays!) If you fail to get it, the Bears have to go 96 yards to beat you, and in/on that weather/field, they are going to need 65 yards to be in field goal position to tie. The same 65 yards the Bears needed for a win after the pop-fly shit kick, except WITH NO TIME OUTS THIS TIME.
Your second option is to believe in your quarterback and offense and say, "odds are 4 straight passing plays will get us 6 yards and a TD one way or the other, even with Christian Fucking Ponder". GO FOR THE THROAT! Win the game, right then and there! The last fucking thing you do is get wishy-washy and go run, pass, run, meaningless field goal! What the fuck was that, a courtesy time-out you were leaving the Bears with!? That was nice of you!!!!!!!
My final point I took from last week's game. Everyone is saying, "you can't blame Ponder for this one, he played great after that pick six". At first I agreed with everyone and I now feel dirty for doing so.
I watched back the replays of Tim Jennings pick six, probably about 25 times and I noticed a few things that are entirely too indicative of Christian Ponders time with the Vikings. The Vikings were in a two tight end set with Jennings and Simpson out wide left and right, respectively. The blitz comes from the right, and is beautifully picked up by Adrian Peterson, the rest of the line holds their blocks and a nice pocket is set up for young Mr. Ponder. Jerome Simpson is triple covered, possibly because Ponder never looks away from him. If he looks slightly to his left, away from the sideline and towards the right hash, he sees Jon Carlson 15 yards downfield with no one within 10 yards of him. If he DARES to survey the entire field and look to his left, he sees a streaking Kyle Rudolph down the left hash with a desperate JULIUS PEPPERS 5 yards behind him, frantically trying to catch up because he has no safety help. We had one of the most athletic tight ends in the NFL, running a go-route, covered by an aging defensive end with no safety help, and Ponder never even saw it. His tunnel vision kicked in, he saw imaginary pressure, and he threw a terrible pass. You know the rest. I didn't even see if Greg Jennings was open, I was so disgusted. Kyle Rudolph would still be running.
Final "fun" fact. Since 1942, only 5 NFL teams have lost a game after winning the turnover battle, returning a fumble for a TD, and returning a kick for a TD.
Fuck.
And of course.
On to the picks:
Houston (2-0) at Baltimore (1-1)
The Ravens have fallen off offensively. It's starting to look like they got hot at the right time last year and cashed in in more ways than one. They still have lesser-Harbaugh though, and that's better than most teams.
The Texans have powered through a semi-shaky first 2 weeks to find themselves at 2-0 and look to be an 11 or 12 win team again. Sorry Baltimore, I know it sucks to be in Baltimore, but this week, you're going to be losers in Baltimore. Redundant? Texans win 27-20
New York Giants (0-2) at Carolina (0-2)
Fuuuuuuck. These are the hardest games to have an opinion on. Non-descript, inter-conference, with no personal interest on my part.
Cam Newton might be doomed and his curse may have started when he was drafted by Carolina. The Curse Of Chris Weinke does not fade so easily Mwahahahaha!
Eli Manning truly looked like a pouting little brother last week as the Giants were dismantled by the Broncos. 4 INT's isn't going to get it done against Archie's favorite son, sorry Eli (We all know its true). Giants win this one 23-20
Detroit (1-1) at Washington (0-2)
It must be Week 3 in the NFL season, because Reggie Bush is nursing a knee injury.
RG III is winless and he doesn't look like his old self quite yet. I think that starts to change this week against an undisciplined Lions club. He will have opportunities to run against the Lions, if he doesn't take them I think it's proof positive that he isn't 100% comfortable with his knee yet.
The Lions look like pretenders. I can't believe the Vikings fucking lost to them already. Skins win 26-24
San Diego (1-1) at Tennessee (1-1)
All offense vs. all defense. Virtually equal levels of terrible. Two teams that may excite their fan bases at certain points of the season, but aren't going to be playing in January.
Phillip Rivers throws the ball nearly 50 times a game. He's starting to remind me of an un-loveable Kurt Warner. Go bag some groceries, Rivers! Chargers win 27-16
Arizona (1-1) at New Orleans (2-0)
Sean Payton has turned the Saints defense around. I scoffed last year at the idea the only reason the Saints were choking week after week was the lack of their leader on the sidelines, but now I'm starting to think Payton does make all the difference. The Saints would have never won a game last year when scoring only 16 points. In fact they probably would have lost by 3 touchdowns. Its a different year, and the Saints are for real. Saints win 31-21
Tampa Bay (0-2) at New England (2-0)
The Patriots are barely winning games against crummy teams and here's the surprise of the year: Danny Amendola is hurt! Nobody saw that coming. The receivers Tom Brady Is throwing to look like they got picked up from a local high school. If Tom Brady can't make you look good, you're a terrible WR, its that simple. "Gronk Watch" reports Gronk might Gronk it up this weekend and get the Gronk out on the field.
The Bucs are an NFL punch line and Josh Freeman is proving all my trash talking last year true. He really is the Ford Pinto of NFL Quarterbacks, this week he breaks down on the side of the road and starts on fire. Pats win 28-13
(Editor's Note: To our new Ten & Six readers, note that Mike comparing Josh Freeman to a flaming Ford Pinto is universal sign to bet on Tampa Bay this weekend. Josh Freeman loves fucking with Mikey.)
Green Bay (1-1) at Cincinnati (1-1)
Jesus Christ, Aaron Rodgers is a football throwing God. It pains me to admit that, but it's the ugly, smelly, cheesy, truthy. The Bengals have a pretty solid defense and a strong front 7 so here's hoping they can get some pressure on Fucky The Cheesehead.
To understand my vitriol for the Packers you have to realize as long as I can remember the Packers have had a franchise QB while my team has started everyone from Jeff George to Kelly freaking Holcomb under center. It hurts. It makes me want to stab things. Fucky and the Cheesers win 24-20
St. Louis (1-1) at Dallas (1-1)
So it was reported this week that on game days, the Cowboys billion dollar stadium uses energy at a faster rate than the entire country of Liberia. America's Team indeed. As in one of the reasons why everyone hates America. Sorry, Liberia, Sundays in Dallas are just more important than you. Maybe if you got a football team we would care about you. All you got right now is drought. Drought don't sell tickets! Sheeeeeeeit.
I feel dirty. This must be what Jerry Jones feels like everyday, that's assuming he still has human emotions. Cowboys win 24-17 and stick it to Liberia, again
Atlanta (1-1) at Miami (2-0)
Could the Dolphins be... good? It's been so long, it just doesn't feel right. Last time the Dolphins went to the playoffs Chad Pennington was still a thing and Ray Lewis didn't need deer byproducts to stay on the field.
The Falcons are going to be fighting for a wild card spot this year with the resurgence of the Saints, and they really need to win tough road games like this if they want to keep pace with the Saints. Going to be a close one throughout but I think the Dirty Birds win by a field goal, 24-21
Buffalo (1-1) at New York Jets (1-1)
This is a big game. Mainly because we will see Geno Smith and EJ Manuel in the same place at the same time, putting to rest the theory that they are the exact same person.
Something that has already been confirmed: Rex Ryan is and idiot, Doug Marrone is a shmuck. Welcome NFL fans, to the Shmuck Bowl! Between Rex Ryan and Doug Marrone there is enough drooping skin to provide skin grafts for an entire burning building of Jets and Bills fans. Are there enough Bills and Jets fans to fill up a building? I guess we'll find out Sunday. Bills win 17-13, I guess
Indianapolis (1-1) at San Francisco (1-1)
Colin Kaepernick looked human against the Seahawks last week. In fact, he looked downright awful. That's the first time I've seen him just picked apart by a defense. He gets a reprieve this week against a pretty average Colts secondary.
The Colts picked up Trent Richardson this week and he adds another dimension to their offense. I don't know about you, but Andrew Luck and Trent Richardson is a pretty frightening combination for defenses. This is going to be a close game, but the Niners take it in the end, 31-27
Jacksoville (0-2) at Seattle (2-0)
You might as well have The Sisters Of The Poor play the Seahawks in this one. Every week of the NFL season holds a game that makes you say "For Fuck's Sake" and this contest is the most recent installment. The Seahawks might win by 3 touchdowns easy. Maurice Jones Drew might come back this week, to which I say, why do that to yourself MJD? Don't be a martyr. Just wait until the Jags move to LA. Seahawks win 45-9
Chicago (2-0) at Pittsburgh (0-2)
Reports are Jay Cutler told his teammates, "The Vikings are going to give us this one" at the beginning of his game winning drive last week. Score one more point for the biggest asshole in the NFL. He was right, and they did. I hate to break this to him, but beating the Vikings by one point at Soldier Field doesn't make you a Super Bowl champion. You may need to get through an NFC Championship game without totally pussying out before anyone respects you.
Fuck off, Cutler. Enjoy your meaningless September wins. Bears win 26-20
Oakland (0-2) at Denver (2-0)
Here comes a real test for Terrelle Pryor. If he can put up a fight against Peyton Manning I will start to give his NFL ability some credit. Until then he can fuck off. You know what? Peyton manning can fuck off too. In fact I want everyone associated with the Raiders and Broncos to fuck off. I don't care. Peyton will never win a Super Bowl in Denver and that's the bottom line, cuz Stone Cold says so. WHAT!?! Broncos win ONE-FUCKING-MILLION-TO-THREE
There you have it, folks. A progressively angry set of picks for Week 3. That's enough snackin', though. Mikey, take us to the main course.
CLEVELAND BROWNS (0-2) at MINNESOTA VIKINGS (0-2)
Well, if you can't win this one you can't win any of them.
Last week the Vikings lost a heartbreaker to the Bears in Chicago and they can't afford to have any kind of hangover. They also can't afford to look past a hapless, desperate Browns team. I already gave my thoughts on just what went wrong last week so lets just look at some quick positive(s) and negatives from the loss.
Positive(s):
-Matt Kalil He shook off a bumpy Week 1 to dominate Julius Peppers, protecting Christian Ponder's blind side and keeping him upright in the process. The only way the Vikings have a chance this year is to keep that dufus on his feet. Kudos to Kalil for shaking off the rust and getting back to his All-Pro form.
Negatives:
-Christian Ponder Put all the lipstick you want on a pig, it's still a fucking pig. Put all the positive spin on his performance last week you want, he's still a bad quarterback. I'm just about ready to give up on Ponder. He needs a dominant performance against the Browns to give me any hope.
-The Secondary They got torched for a second week in a row. The veteran leadership provided by Antoine Winfield is gone and it is apparent after two weeks of opposing quarterbacks doing pretty much whatever they want. If Brian Hoyer goes for 300 yards (which is a distinct possibility) I might cry.
-The Linebackers Running backs have gouged the Vikings for nearly 500 all purpose yards through two weeks of the season. I can't remember any of the linebackers making a tackle in the backfield yet. Troubling. They actually looked better last year with Jasper Brinkley. Erin Henderson needs to figure it out and figure it out fast.
Three Keys To A Vikings Victory:
Key #1: Get An Early Lead
The Browns just lost their best young player in Trent Richardson. That has to be demoralizing, not only to the fan base, but to the players as well. Get up on them early and they may just completely roll over.
Key #2: Finish Drives With Touchdowns
I'm sick of seeing trips to the red zone end in field goals. You can't let teams stay in the game whether they're good or whether they're the Browns. Scoring 3 points instead of 7 will keep the Browns in it until the 4th, and anything can happen with close games in the final quarter.
Key #3: For Fuck's Sake, Just Play Smart
The only way the Browns win this game is if the Vikings give it to them. Avoid turnovers, hand the ball to AP 30 times and you're looking at an easy "W". Don't get too fancy, and for the love of Pete, get Cordarrelle Patterson involved in the offense!
Two Matchups To Watch:
Matchup #1: Barkevious Mingo vs. The Vikings Offensive Line
The strongest part of the Browns entire team is there defensive Front 7 and considerable pressure on Christian Ponder is the only way the Browns can stay in the game. Barkevious Mingo is a very talented outside LB and truly a young sideline to sideline defender. If he is putting Ponder on his back regularly things could get ugly quickly for the Vikings.
Matchup #2: The Vikings Coaching Staff vs. Their Own Stupid Brains
Leslie Frazier and Co. coached their way out of a road victory in Chicago last week. Inexplicably, through two weeks of the season Cordarrelle Patterson has only seen 11 offensive snaps. He has been thrown a few bubble screens, but I want to see him go over the middle of the field. He is a freak athlete with incredible potential, but he's not gonna score any touchdowns from the sideline.
Hey Leslie, this week, if you're inside the 10 yard line with a chance to ice the game in the 4th quarter, do me a favor and ICE THE FUCKING GAME!
Mike's All-Purpose Flour Lock Of The Week:
Harrison Smith, Safety, YOUR Minnesota Vikings
An inexperienced Brian Hoyer at QB for the Browns should lead to a big game for the ball hawking second year safety. Really fun to watch him play. 9 tackles/2 INT
Final Takes
I'd like to say I felt like the Vikings were going to win this in a route, but I know my Vikings all too well to predict that. This team plays up or down to the talent level of their opponent, which is not a good thing but its the reality of the situation.
If they lose this one it's time to bench Ponder. Hate to say that, but it's true. I see a game that is kept all too close by Vikings miscues and shoddy tackling, but our guys in purple win it by a field goal.
Final Score:
Cleveland Browns: 17
Minnesota Vikings: 20
On to London!
There you have it, football fans! Mikey predicts victory at the Metrodome! An unnecessarily close victory, but a victory nonetheless!
For more Mike Otto be sure to give him a follow on Twitter (@SwervinTaters). Be sure to follow him this Sunday during the game as he breaks down the Vikings home opener. He can also be found right here on Newest Industry contributing to our Trendsetting column.
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