Saturday, December 8, 2012

Ten & Six With Mike Otto: Week 14 - Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings

Super-duper drunk? Done and done...


Hello again, football fans! Welcome back to Ten & Six With Mike Otto!

A big hello to any new readers out there. If you don't know exactly what you're looking at, let us break it down for you.

  1. Mike Otto is Newest Industry's resident football expert.
  2. Mike Otto is a lifelong, hopelessly devoted Vikings fan.
  3. Mike Otto stops by every Saturday to break down the Vikings game and make his picks for the rest of the league.
  4. Mike Otto has a healthy, shiny coat thanks to Brandon Weeden.

Week 14 is upon us and it's do or die time for YOUR Minnesota Vikings with the Bears coming to suddenly snowy Minneapolis.

The Vikings are 6-6 with the season teetering... Michael, your thoughts?


Welcome back to Ten & Six!

It was another extremely mediocre week for my picks, which went 8-8, and another brutally disappointing week for the Vikings.

(Editor's Note: Including Thursday's game, Mike's record for the year is now 127-83-1.)

Particularly disappointing was quarterback Christian Ponder, who managed to squander a 210 yard performance from Adrian Peterson. Young Mr. Ponder amassed a paltry 119 yards passing to go along with one touchdown and two interceptions. Worth noting, the majority of those yards were picked up in garbage time with the Packers defense playing to prevent a deep ball. Christian Ponder didn't complete a single pass in the 2nd and 3rd quarters! That is totally unacceptable.

I wanted the Vikings to win this game so badly and the most frustrating part of the loss is it was right there for them.

Michael Vick doesn't lose that game. Ryan Tannehill doesn't lose that game. Russell Wilson doesn't lose that game. Tarvaris Jackson doesn't lose... OK, well, T-Jack probably does lose that game. But the point is this: If our quarterback doesn't play a completely diseased four quarters the Vikings come away with a victory.

I'll dissect more of the Christian Ponder starting quarterback questions later. Right now I'm going to open another can of cat food and try to make some decent picks:

San Diego (4-8) at Pittsburgh (7-5)

Currently there is no safer bet in sports than the Chargers blowing a 4th quarter lead. Doesn't matter who they are playing, doesn't matter how much they are ahead, and it doesn't matter if Norva and Philip had great make-up sex after the last loss. Bet on them blowing that lead.

Charlie Batch won a game for the Steelers last week, which was very surprising considering he forgot to take his Metamucil before the game. Steelers win 24-17

Tennessee (4-8) at Indianapolis (8-4)

Andrew Luck sure looks like the real deal and the Colts look like they're playoff bound.

If it weren't for Peytie Manny I'd say Andrew Luck is the MVP. Must be tough t be a Colts fan. Had to wait an entire year between franchise quarterbacks.

Whatever, at least I don't live in Indiana. Colts win 24-13

St. Louis (5-6-1) at Buffalo (5-7)

A couple of dirty whore teams face off in this one.

The Rams say they feel like they can play with any team right now. Well, St. Louis, your feelings are retarded. However, you can play with the Bills and probably out-whore them too.

Rams win in the Whore Capital Of America 19-17.

(Editor's Note: Sorry, Buffalo. At least you won something, right?)

Dallas (6-6) at Cincinnati (7-5)

Playoff implications abound in this cross-conference matchup.

I really believe this game is more about who makes the least terrible plays as opposed to who makes the most decent plays. Both of these franchises have a very established recent history of failing to get the fuck out of their own way.

Now, the Bengals have been fucking up their own lives since the days of Chris Collinsworth (may he rest in peace), but Tony Romo and the Cowboys are the current Kings of Self-Inflicted Wounds. Tough call. I'll go with the Bengals at home 27-26.

(Editor's Note: Sorry again, Buffalo. Bet you thought you had “Kings Of Self-Inflicted Wounds” sewn up.)

Kansas City (2-10) at Cleveland (4-8)

I've been eating so much goddamn cat food lately I'm starting to feel like a Prawn from District 9.

If you don't know, at the beginning of the year I promised to eat a can of cat food every time I incorrectly predicted the outcome of a Browns game. After eating only one can in Weeks 1-11, I've had to eat two cans in the last two weeks.

Honestly, this game could go either way because both teams are terrible. I'm going to go with my gut and say the Chiefs win their second in a row 20-17

Philadelphia (3-9) at Tampa Bay (6-6)

That collective groan you heard earlier this week? That was Eagles fans learning they had four more weeks of Nick Foles to suffer through.

Josh Freeman has gotten back to what he's best at: losing games and fucking my picks over! Half of my 83 incorrect outcomes this year have come in Bucs games. Hard to believe, isn't it?

Dear Josh Freeman,

Please don't fuck me again this week, I'm starting to feel like a Florida Jezebel.

Sincerely, Mike

Bucs win 28-16

Baltimore (9-3) at Washington (6-6)

The Ravens need to wake the fuck up, they haven't secured a playoff spot yet. Their defense surely isn't what it used to be. For god's sake, they made Charlie Batch look not only serviceable, but poised and cold-blooded! I still question whether or not Joe Flacco can carry a team.

The Ravens need to dial up a heavy dose of "Ruh-roh!" Ray Rice this week. The less Bob III has the ball in his hands the better.

Interesting stat: The Redskins are 5-1 when Pierre Garcon plays and 1-5 when he doesn't. That's the first time a Frenchman has done anything good on American soil in recorded history. Redskins win a close one 24-21.

(Editor's Note: Mike does not consider the Tony Parker-led Spurs championships as “anything good.” Newest Industry's editors do not recognize basketball as a sport.)

Atlanta (11-1) at Carolina (3-9)

Can anyone remember a more boring 11-1 team that these Atlanta Falcons? Their highlight packages are as good for an afternoon nap as watching a round of golf! Where's the drama?!?

Come on, Roddy White! Don't you think you should be getting the ball more? Julio Jones, don't you think Matt Ryan is a little bitch? Matt Ryan, is it true Arthur Blank sold his penis on the black market?

Oh, fuck off Atlanta, just keep winning. Dirty Birds with another boring win 31-23.

New York Jets (5-7) at Jacksonville (2-10)

It's going to be fun to watch Mark Sanchez start this week after the last shred of his confidence was torn away with is benching against the Cards. I'm betting Sanchez had to google “Greg McElroy” to find out who replaced him.

In other news, Rex Ryan has gone into complete denial. He stated that he, “has three good quarterbacks” and that, “it's a great problem to have.” Hate to break it to you Rex, but you could combine the best parts of those three numbskulls and you still wouldn't have one good quarterback.

Rex also said the Jets 7-6 victory over the Cards was, “a beautiful game.” I suppose that makes sense, though keep in mind, this is a man that likes to oil up his wife's old, cracked feet and plow them like some freshly tilled soil.

Fat. And. Doomed. Jags win 10-6

Miami (5-7) at San Francisco (8-3-1)

Colin Kaepernick looked like a rookie last week as the Niners blew their chance at the #1 seed in the NFC by losing to the Rams in OT.

You have to believe Alex Smith was smiling on the inside, even if it was just a little bit. I really think Alex Smith would have won that game had he started.

Harbaugh may have fucked himself over with this quarterback change. He can't go back to Smith now or it looks like he was just an idiot experimenting with the most important position during the course of a highly successful season. That's what the offseason is for, Jimmy.

Coach Harbaugh better hope the team wins this week or he will have quite the controversy on his hands. I think the Niners pick up their coach and win 23-20.

New Orleans (5-7) at New York Giants (7-5)

Jason Pierre-Paul said Drew Brees is, “an easier matchup” than Bob III. Don't piss off the Lil' Breezy, J.P.P., especially a Lil' Breezy that's already pissed after throwing five picks and no touchdowns last week. The guy is a top 5 QB in the league! Probably don't need to give him any added motivation.

For that reason I'm smelling up set here. Saints win 31-27.

Arizona (4-8) at Seattle (7-5)

The Seahawks are nipping at the heels of the Niners and a win here would put them in the driver's seat for the NFC wild card. Needless to say, a victory here is highly likely because the Cardinals have been starting homeless man-turned-quarterback Ryan Lindley.

Lindley has absolutely no idea what is going on before the snap, during the play, in the huddle, and in the showers after the game. Soap? Ain't never had that before.

He was homeless three weeks ago, give him a break. Seahawks win 20-6.

Detroit (4-8) at Green Bay (8-4)

Hate the fucking Packers. Don't wanna talk about them. Fuck 'em. Didn't deserve that win last week. Bunch of fat, drunken bastards for fans...

(Editor's note: Michael continued to mutter in this manner for several semi-coherent minutes. Come back to us, Mikey.)

I hope Suh crushes Rodgers a couple times or at least kicks him in the nuts once (if, in fact, Aaron Rodgers has a pair of testicles). Packers win 31-24.

Houston (11-1) at New England (9-3)

Two offensive powerhouses face off in a game that is sure to feature lots of scoring.

The Texans defense is far superior to the Patriots, but the Pats have the best quarterback in the league with Tom Brady.

Matt Schaub is in the top 10, but he is nowhere near Brady. No shame in that. Very few quarterbacks come close to Brady's football IQ and ability.

Still, I think the Patriots defense is just too weak and will be their downfall against such a strong offense. Texans win a shootout 42-31

Now that that's out of the way, on to the main event.


 CHICAGO BEARS (8-4) at MINNESOTA VIKINGS (6-6)

The next four games are the most important of Christian Ponder's career.

The Vikings hope of getting in the playoffs is likely dead, but the young quarterback needs to show what he has learned, improve his poise, pocket presence, and win some freakin' games!  Or, at least don't be the reason the team loses.

Last week the Vikings became only the third team in NFL history to lose a game with a 200 yard rusher.  Not really great, is it?  When your quarterback only has 36 yards passing halfway through the fourth quarter that's the result.

It's now or never for young Mr. Ponder.  Let's take a look at some positives and negatives from last week.  As always, we'll start with the positives.

-Adrian Peterson 210 yards and 10 yards per carry.  Adrian is undeniably the best running back in the NFL and the best pure runner since Barry Sanders.  It kills me to be wasting these types of performances with a totally inept passing game.  I hope every Vikings fan appreciates every time they get to see AP carry the ball because we are all unlikely to ever see anything like this again.

-Harrison Smith Stayed at home on a Packers flea-flicker attempt and picked off a deep Aaron Rodgers pass.  This kid is special and he's going to be fun to watch the next 10 years.  Coupled with the vast improvement of Jamarca Sanford's play, the Vikings have the back end of their defense looking pretty solid for years to come.  In this current pass-happy NFL having good safeties is a big piece of the puzzle.

Now, sadly, the negatives.

-Christian Ponder The one and only negative this week and the Vikings still lost.  That should tell you just how important competent quarterback play is and just how terrible Ponder was.  Most troubling to me is Ponder's panic-stricken tendencies when in the pocket.  He still moves when he doesn't need to, breaks the pocket when there is no real pressure, and is missing potentially wide open receivers because of it.

The only reason the Vikings lost to the Packers was Chrisitan Ponder.  Come on, man!  Freaking Morgan Burnett with two picks?  I don't even know what a "Morgan Burnett" is!

Three Keys To A Vikings Victory

Key #1: Build Ponder's confidence early


The kid needs to start fast or the home crowd is going to get all over him.  Bill Musgrave needs to dial up some quick rhythm passes on the Vikings first possession.  Don't be afraid to go five-wide and throw a pass to Felton in the flatJust get some early completions on the stat sheet.

Key #2: Don't let Brandon Marshall beat you


Last time the Vikings doubled him all game and he still caught 12 balls.  It seemed like the Bears could throw to him and get 8 yards whenever they wanted.  In doing so they dominated time of possession and first downs.  I know he's one of the tougher wide receivers to jam at the line, but I want to see a better effort in that department this time around.

Key #3: Establish a freaking wide receiver as an actual threat


Kyle Rudolph has been facing constant double teams ever since Percy Harvin was injured.  Why?  Because none of our other receivers has proven they can make a difference on a consistent basis!  If the Vikings could get Jerome Simpson or Jarius Wright around 50 yards receiving by halftime it could open things up for Rudolph over the middle of the field in the second half.
 
Two Matchups To Watch

Matchup #1: Good Christian Ponder vs. Bad, Ugly, Stinky Christian Ponder


The young man got engaged to Samantha Steele this week, so we know he can make a quick decision off the field, time to show he can make one on the field.

We need to see the Christian Ponder from the Niners and Lions home games, not the guy we saw against the Seahawks and last week against the Packers.

Matchup #2: Jared Allen vs. Retaliation For The Lance Louis Block


Disregard the fact that Lance Louis needs to pay more attention when being involved with an opposing team's interception return, or that Jared Allen was not flagged on the play.  Lance's offensive line buddies only remember that their brother-in-arms season was ended by a block Jared Allen was later fined for.  If this game gets one-sided for either team things could get chippy and that's when The Calf Wrangler needs to watch his back (or, should I say, his knees?).

Mike's All Purpose Flour Lock Of The Week

The Entire Defensive Line Of YOUR Minnesota Vikings


5 sacks, 3 pass deflections, and constant pressure on Jay Cutler.  The defensive line has been much better in home games this year and that continues on Sunday.

FINAL TAKES

The Vikings, at 5-1, have been a much better team at home this year.  Bill Musgrave seems to call a more aggressive game offensively when the Vikings are in The Dome as opposed to when they are on the road.  I haven't yet decided if that bothers me or not.

The team looks faster, more decisive, amd more cold-blooded in the comfort of our dome-sweet-dome.

With Tim Jennings and Brian Urlacher out of this game there are weaknesses just begging to be exploited.

Fact of the matter is the Vikings are desperate for a win and if they can't get a victory here they are unlikely to get any the rest of the way.

A loss here at the hands of another awful Christian Ponder performance will be devastating for the franchise and would signal time for a serious reevaluation of several things.

A must win in more ways than one for sure!  And you know, I think they get it!

Final Score:

Minnesota Vikings: 24
Chicago Bears: 23

Wooooo!!
There you have it, football fans!  A big win in a must win game!  Skoooolllll Vikes!



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